Roughly Exactly
roughlyexactly.com
Roughly Exactly is a set of Bayesian calculators that run in the browser. It serves product managers, growth teams, researchers, analysts, reliability engineers and others who need to compute probabilities and uncertainties. All calculations run locally on the user's device, so no data is sent to a server.
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What it does
- Bayesian A/B Test Calculator computes the probability that variant B beats A and a credible interval for the lift.
- Customer Churn Simulator shows where steady acquisition balances steady churn and how wide that ceiling is.
- Customer Value Calculator estimates customer lifetime value as a range against acquisition cost.
- Serial-Number Estimator estimates total production from observed serial numbers.
- Capture-Recapture Estimator estimates total population size from multiple incomplete samples.
- Time-to-Event Explorer analyzes failure distributions for reliability engineering.
Good to know
- Runs in a web browser, client-side only.
- No data is sent to a server, so users can paste real counts.
In their words
Decide whether a variant won, what an experiment is worth running, and whether churn is outrunning acquisition, with uncertainty you can show a stakeholder.
Bayesian calculators for the questions your field asks.